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中国房价延续下跌趋势  

2014-10-29 11:43:11|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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中国房价延续下跌趋势 - hongbinji - jiji的博客

 尽管政府推出了鼓励居民购房的各种政策,但房地产市场仍然没有回暖迹象。

 

今年9月份,中国房地产行业的下滑势头仍在延续。在统计覆盖的70个城市中,有69个城市的新建商品住宅价格出现下降。

    据中国国家统计局(National Bureau of Statistics)称,受访城市中,新建商品住宅价格最大环比降幅为1.9%,其中北京和上海环比跌幅分别为0.7%和0.9%。与上月相比,70个受访城市的二手住宅价格环比全部下降,最小降幅为0.5%,最大降幅为2.0%。

    这些数字表明,最近中国央行推出的救市措施至少到目前还未能成功地扭转房地产市场的颓势。近期,中国人民银行(People’s Bank of China)将居民第二套住房首付比例要求从60%以上,下调至30%,执行与首套房房贷一样的首付比例要求。

    最新房价数据加剧了围绕中国房地产市场去投机泡沫化进程的不安情绪。分析师们担心,泡沫破裂可能导致银行不良贷款大幅上升。

 

    中国建设银行股份有限公司(China Construction Bank Corp)上周四称,截至第三季度末,该行不良贷款率升至1.13%,高于第二季度末的1.04%。虽然这仍远低于分析师们眼中的警戒线水平,但0.09%的增幅比前三个月0.02%的增幅要迅猛。根据中国人民银行公布的数据,6月份银行业总体不良贷款率达到1.08%,为三年来最高水平。

    但分析师们担心,官方数据可能没有反映房地产信贷的全貌,因为许多信贷来自非正规渠道或所谓的“影子银行”。

    影子银行提供的新增贷款在近几个月大幅下滑,因为大部分地区经过多年的过度建设后均面临住房供给过剩的困局。

    中国西南财经大学(Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)6月份的一项调查报告显示,2013年中国城镇地区整体住房空置率超过20%,而截至今年8月份,空置住房占据了4.2万亿元(约6740亿美元)的住房贷款余额。

    在过去六周,中国央行已经通过向大型银行提供3个月期贷款的形式向银行业新注入了1000亿美元流动性,以确保地产业的放缓不会导致信贷市场冻结。

    受房地产市场减速拖累,中国经济整体增速已经降至五年来最低水平。上周早些时候公布的最新官方数据显示,今年第三季度,中国国内生产总值(GDP)仅同比增长7.3%,低于政府7.5%的全年增速目标。(财富中文网)

    译者:Peter

The decline in China’s housing sector continued in September, with prices for new homes falling in all but one of 70 major cities surveyed.

    The National Bureau of Statistics said that prices for new homes fell by up to 1.9% in the cities surveyed, with drops of 0.7% in Beijing and 0.9% in Shanghai. Prices for existing homes fell in all 70 cities, with drops of between 0.5% and 2.0%.

    The figures suggest that recent measures by the People’s Bank of China to support the market haven’t succeeded in turning it round, at least yet. The central bank recently cut downpayment requirements for those buying a second property to 30% from over 60%, the same level as first-time buyers enjoy.

    The numbers add to unease about the unwinding of a speculative bubble in the country’s real estate sector, which analysts fear may lead to a big rise in bad loans among its banks.

    China Construction Bank Corp CICHY 0.17% said Thursday bad loans rose to 1.13% of its total portfolio in the third quarter, from 1.04% at the end of the second quarter. While that’s still well below the level that analysts would consider stressed, the increase of 0.09% was faster than the 0.02% reported in the previous three months. Overall bad loans in the sector were at their highest in three years in June, according to the PBoC at 1.08%.

    Analysts worry, however, that official data may not capture the full picture, as much of the credit to the real estate sector goes through the informal, or shadow, banking sector.

    New loans through such shadow banks have fallen sharply in recent months, as most regions struggle with excess supply after years of over-building.

    A survey by China’s Southwestern University of Finance and Economics in June said that more that 20% of homes in urban areas were actually vacant, while as of August, around $674 billion was owed on empty properties.

    In the last six weeks, the PBoC has injected an extra $100 billion in liquidity to the country’s largest banks in the form of three-month loans to ensure that a slowdown in the real estate sector doesn’t make credit markets seize up.

    The real estate slowdown has contributed to the economy’s overall growth rate falling to its slowest in five years. The government said earlier this week that gross domestic product grew only 7.3% year-on-year in the third quarter, short of the government’s 7.5% target.




 

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